The United States issued a stern warning to India before the high-profile Trump–Putin peace summit in Alaska on August 15, announcing that tariffs for Indian products could climb even higher if the summit does not bring progress towards putting an end to the war in Ukraine. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that Washington has already levied secondary tariffs against India for its continued imports of Russian oil, and suggested that these sanctions might be escalated should diplomacy not work. Currently, India is subject to 50% tariffs on selected exports to the U.S., consisting of a normal 25% duty augmented by another 25% sanction directly tied to its Russian energy and defense imports. As per Bessent, the result of the Alaska gathering will largely determine if these economic measures are eased or strengthened.
President Donald Trump made the inference that the pressure on India could have contributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to accept the talks, saying that “when you lose your second-largest customer, I think that probably has a role.” Though Trump characterized the meeting as a “feel-out session,” he teased the prospect of a larger peace agreement and even an eventual follow-on round of talks including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Biden government had continued tariffs against India since Trump’s return to power, but now those tariffs are being used as geopolitical leverage to shatter the Ukraine impasse.
For India, the game is a high-stakes one. A fresh wave of U.S. tariffs could disrupt key export sectors such as textiles, gems, jewellery, and pharmaceuticals, while also straining New Delhi’s delicate balancing act between its strategic ties with Washington and its energy security needs from Moscow. The alert highlights the way in which global diplomacy, energy markets, and trade policy are becoming ever more interlinked, with India at the centre of an expensive-looking geopolitical bet that could redefine not just the Ukraine conflict but the course of U.S.–India relations as well.