China is increasingly using its dominance in the production of key minerals to apply strategic leverage over Western defense companies, dramatically cutting exports of antimony, germanium, gallium, tungsten, indium, and heavy rare earths. Export controls and licensing requirements targeting military end-users have prompted supply delay, cost increases of up to 60×, and halted manufacturing for firms like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. Data from Reuters indicates antimony sales to Europe and Asia plummeted more than 90% and germanium and gallium shipments to record lows even as rare earth volumes recovered temporarily after US-China trade negotiations.
These restrictions started early in 2023 and broadened in February 2025 when China added five defense-linked metals such as tungsten, indium, and molybdenum under licensing; antimony, gallium, and germanium de facto prohibited to the U.S. since December 2024. China processes more than 90% of global rare earths and maintains near-monopoly of these minerals, so Western defense supply lines are extremely vulnerable.
Meanwhile, defense companies and governments are stepping up diversifications: the Pentagon has invested $400 million in MP Materials for producing rare earth magnets domestically; ally coalitions involving Australia, India, Japan, and Europe are scaling up mining and refining ventures; and players like Umicore report having weathered the storm by using stockpiles as well as diversified suppliers. China has also promised more stringent enforcement to crack down on smuggling and transshipping of strategic minerals emphasizing increasing concern over use of third-country routes to circumvent export controls
Reuters.
Experts say it could take years even a decade or more to enable Western countries to develop similar domestic processing capacity and take less reliance on Chinese mineral supply.